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CRITICAL PATH PARTNERSForensic Schedule Analysis
Narrative expert report

Ontario Community College - B2 (Demo Data)

Project
Ontario Community College - B2 (Demo Data)
Report date
2026-09-01
Claimant (Contractor)
Northgate Constructors
Respondent (Owner)
Ontario Community College Owner Group
Prepared by
Dana Fitkowski, Principal, Critical Path Partners
Slip quantified
21 wd
working days, windows analysis
Standard
AACE 29R-03
Protocol
SCL
Units
working days
R-01

Instructions received

what the analyst was asked to do

Critical Path Partners was retained by Northgate Constructors to quantify the movement of project completion between the baseline schedule of record and the schedule update at data date 01-Jul-2025, to attribute that movement by cause, and to prepare an extension-of-time submission under the contract for the owner-attributable portion. This is a demonstration engagement on synthetic data, prepared so a prospective client can see the complete work product.

R-02

Qualifications

who prepared this report

Dana Fitkowski is the principal of Critical Path Partners. He has 24 years of construction planning and scheduling experience, including 20 years on Canadian nuclear projects, and currently leads planning and scheduling for major industrial and commercial construction programs. His practice is built on Primavera P6 and the methods of AACE International Recommended Practice 29R-03 and the SCL Delay and Disruption Protocol. The analysis engine used in this report is cross-validated against Primavera P6; the validation record, including its scope and limits, is published at criticalpathpartners.ca/validation.html.

R-03

Facts and chronology

the factual record relied on

The demonstration project is a college building expansion of 404 activities, baseline completion 31-Aug-2026. At data date 01-Jul-2025 the update forecasts completion on 30-Sep-2026, 21 working days later than the baseline.

The windows analysis attributes the 21 working days as follows: 9 working days to the Owner, principally the staged-witnessing restriction on fire-spray application (event DE-01), with related owner-attributed slips at the existing facade tie-in and a directed roofing resubmittal; and 12 working days to the Contractor, on remobilization crew availability, trade stacking through the interior chain, and deficiency re-work. No concurrent delay window was identified.

This submission claims the owner-attributable 9 working days pursuant to GC 6.5.1 and claims nothing for the contractor-attributable 12 working days, which are stated in the analysis so the record is complete.

R-04

Method selection

the chosen MIP argued factor by factor

Method selected: AACE 29R-03 MIP 3.3 (observational, dynamic, contemporaneous as-is).

AACE 29R-03 Section 5 identifies eleven factors bearing on method selection (Sections 5.1 to 5.11). The RP prescribes no ranking among them, permits more than one method on a single matter, and places the selection decision with the analyst. Each factor is addressed below; none is omitted.

R-04Method selection against the 29R-03 Section 5 factors
11 factors — all eleven listedExport CSV
SectionFactorApplication to this matter
5.1Contractual requirementsThe demonstration contract (CCDC 2 form) prescribes no analysis method; GC 6.5 requires notice and substantiation, which the contemporaneous updates provide.
5.2Purpose of the analysisThe purpose is an extension-of-time submission during the project, quantified from the contemporaneous schedule record.
5.3Source data availability and reliabilityTwo P6 exports of one continuously statused schedule exist: the baseline of record and the update at data date 01-Jul-2025. Both pass the stored-date intake screen with zero forecast violations.
5.4Size of the disputeThe claim is 9 working days on a single event; a proportionate observational method is appropriate.
5.5Complexity of the disputeOne delay event, one continuous critical chain; complexity is low and does not warrant a modeled method.
5.6BudgetA single-window observational study fits the engagement budget; the collapsed as-built cross-check bounds the added cost of a second method.
5.7Time allowedThe submission follows the update cycle; the observational method reports within it.
5.8Expertise and resourcesThe analyst maintains the P6 record and the cross-validated analysis engine used here.
5.9Forum for resolution and audienceThe audience is the owner and its consultant in the first instance; the documents are prepared so an independent expert can rerun them from the data pack.
5.10Legal or procedural requirementsNo procedural rules constrain the method at this stage; Ontario Form 53 duties are acknowledged in the declaration should the matter proceed.
5.11Custom and usage of methods on the project or the caseObservational update-to-update comparison is the method already used on the project in monthly reporting.
R-05

Assumptions and exclusions

register, seeded by the pipeline

AACE 29R-03 §2.4.A.5 requires assumptions to be stated in the final analysis product together with their basis. The standing rows below are seeded by the analysis pipeline on every build; matter-specific rows follow them.

R-05Assumptions and exclusions log
6 rows — all listedExport CSV
TopicAssumptionBasis
Data dateAll computed dates and float in this report are calculated from the data date 2025-07-01; no progress is measured to the left of it.XER PROJECT table (last_recalc_date); AACE 29R-03 §1.5.B.2 and §4.3.D.6.
Calendars1 calendars were decoded from the XER and used for working-day arithmetic: Standard.XER CALENDAR table (clndr_data decode), verified at intake.
Finish-boundary conventionThe analysis engine reports early-finish dates as the exclusive boundary: the morning after the last worked day. P6-facing dates are therefore compared start to start (ES to ES); raw engine finish against P6 finish is not compared, because the boundary offset would read as false slip.CPP engine convention, stated so every date comparison in this report can be reproduced.
Activity constraintsActivity constraints were mapped from the XER cstr_type and cstr_date fields, including secondary constraints (cstr_type2, cstr_date2). 7 activities carry a constraint into the model.XER TASK table; AACE 29R-03 §2.1.C.3 (document the basis of all constraints).
Stored-date logic screen607 finish-to-start relationships were screened against the stored dates: 0 forecast violations (successor starting before predecessor finish, both unstarted) and 24 out-of-sequence actuals were found.Relationship screen over XER TASKPRED against stored TASK dates.
Engine scope on progressed schedulesCPM recomputation on progressed schedules simplifies P6 retained logic: remaining work is anchored at the later of actual start and the data date and is not pushed behind incomplete predecessors. Stored P6 dates therefore govern the dates published in this report, and any recomputation delta is disclosed where it appears.CPP engine scope note; validation record at criticalpathpartners.ca/validation.html.
R-06

Findings

what the analysis shows

The Contractor claims 21 working days, per the windows analysis summarized below. Sign convention: positive values are working days lost, negative values are working days recovered. Attribution is the analyst's assignment carried in the forensic result; this report renders it and does not recompute it.

Total slip
21 wd
working days, all windows
Windows analysed
1
every window listed below
Attribution buckets
5
parties in the summary
R-06Window register: per-window completion slip
1 windows — all listed (plus total row)Export CSV
WindowBaseline completionCompletion at window endSlip (wd)
Baseline → Current2026-08-312026-09-3021
Total21
R-06aAttribution summary: working days by party
5 parties — all listed; buckets sum to 21 wdExport CSV
PartyWorking days
Owner9 wd
Contractor12 wd
Concurrent0 wd
Force Majeure0 wd
Unattributed0 wd
R-07

Appendix map

every exhibit, never truncated
R-07Appendix map: register of exhibits
10 exhibits — all listedExport CSV
ExhibitDocumentFormatSHA-256
A-1Cover letter, extension-of-time submissionDOCX / PDF
B-DE-01Delay event analysis DE-01DOCX / PDF
C-1Supporting documents indexDOCX / PDF
W-1Forensic schedule workbookXLSX
S-1Forensic windows analysis dashboardHTML / PDF
S-2Collapsed as-built cross-check dashboardHTML / PDF
S-3Schedule health dashboardHTML / PDF
S-4Claim evidence workbenchHTML / PDF
S-5Monte Carlo schedule risk analysisHTML / PDF
P-1Opposing-expert data pack (native XER files and schedule settings)ZIP
R-08

Declaration

independence, wired from declarations.py

Declaration of Analyst Independence (AACE RP 29R-03 §2.3.D.3 / SCL Delay & Disruption Protocol Annex A).

The signed acknowledgment of this duty is a forum requirement: Ontario Form 53 under rule 53.03 (the duty is stated at rule 4.1.01) in an Ontario civil proceeding, or FRCP 26(a)(2)(B) in a United States federal matter. AACE 29R-03 §2.3.D.3 states the analyst's duty of independence and objectivity in correcting schedule updates.

I, Dana Fitkowski, Principal, Critical Path Partners, of Critical Path Partners, declare that I have prepared this analysis independently. My professional obligation is to present an objective assessment of the schedule facts, irrespective of which party retained me.

I confirm that I have no financial or contingent interest in the outcome of this claim. My fee for preparing this analysis is a fixed professional engagement fee; it does not vary based on the amount awarded, settled, or denied.

I have no prior or present business, family, or consulting relationship with any party to this claim other than the engagement that produced this analysis.

I have had no prior expert engagements adverse to or in favour of any party to this dispute within the past five years.

All data used in this analysis was provided by the retaining party or obtained from the project record (XER exports, RFI/CO logs, meeting minutes, etc). Every derived figure in this report traces to a documented input as identified in the audit manifest.

My opinions are based on the information available as of the date of issue (2026-09-01). New information may result in updated opinions; I reserve the right to amend.

Signature
Dana Fitkowski, Principal, Critical Path Partners
Date
Ontario_Community_College_baseline.xer
sha256 37a454edfda707d797f2dab200919c1da729a17454e53b46084b6a17bc4819db
Ontario_Community_College_current.xer
sha256 7ed1cd8309b1752af74ec9c8d2fa11fbc9a58d4e065630a2589809ed3780ca10
Generated 2026-09-01T09:56:07 · Matter Ontario Community College - B2 (Demo Data) · Engine cpm-engine v2.9.42Reproducible · standards-based